Predictive Inference and Scientific Reproducibility

ABSTRACT

Most statistical analyses use hypothesis tests or estimation about parameters to form inferential conclusions. I think this is noble, but misguided. The point of view expressed here is that observables are fundamental, and that the goal of statistical modeling should be to predict future observations, given the current data and other relevant information. Further, the prediction of future observables provides multiple advantages to practicing scientists, and to science in general. These include an interpretable numerical summary of a quantity of direct interest to current and future researchers, a calibrated prediction of what’s likely to happen in future experiments, a prediction that can be either “corroborated” or “refuted” through experimentation, and avoidance of inference about parameters; quantities that exists only as convenient indices of hypothetical distributions. Finally, the predictive probability of a future observable can be used as a standard for communicating the reliability of the current work, regardless of whether confirmatory experiments are conducted. Adoption of this paradigm would improve our rigor for scientific accuracy and reproducibility by shifting our focus from “finding differences” among hypothetical parameters to predicting observable events based on our current scientific understanding.     

全球化与当代马克思主义中国化

全球化是人类社会发展的一个必然过程。马克思主义是全球化的产物,在全球化和马克思主义的共同作用下,结合中国具体实际,形成了中国化的马克思主义。全球化不仅对马克思主义传入中国和马克思主义中国化的推进产生了深刻的影响,而且对当今中国共产党的指导思想和社会政治现实产生了巨大的作用。     

Scientific consensus,the law,and same sex parenting outcomes

While the US Supreme Court was considering two related cases involving the constitutionality of same-sex marriage, one major question informing that decision was whether scientific research had achieved consensus regarding how children of same-sex couples fare. Determining the extent of consensus has become a key aspect of how social science evidence and testimony is accepted by the courts. Here, we show how a method of analyzing temporal patterns in citation networks can be used to assess the state of social scientific literature as a means to inform just such a question. Patterns of clustering within these citation networks reveal whether and when consensus arises within a scientific field. We find that the literature on outcomes for children of same-sex parents is marked by scientific consensus that they experience “no differences” compared to children from other parental configurations.     

对1986-2005年国内科技传播研究论文的实证分析

自1985年国内最早出现以“科技传播”为题的研究论文到现在,科技传播研究大约已有了20余年的历史,目前也已发展成为一个颇受关注的研究领域。文章对1986～2005年国内期刊发表的210篇科技传播研究论文,进行了一定的量化研究,分别就发表时间、作者及单位、发表期刊、研究内容等做了实证分析,从中可以看到我国科技传播研究发展的历程及有关情况。     

“Double-dose” English as a strategy for improving adolescent literacy: Total effect and mediated effect through classroom peer ability change

“Double-dose” coursework has become an increasingly popular strategy to assist low-performing students succeed in academic coursework. Chicago implemented a “double-dose” English policy in 2003. This policy not only provided additional instructional time to struggling readers, but also intensified skill-based sorting in English classes. I use policy-induced variation to infer the policy effect on students’ reading achievement and the effect mediated by classroom peer ability change. Results show very weak, but positive effects of taking double-dose English for students with average skills. However, potential benefits of doubled instructional time are likely to be offset by negative effects of declines in classroom peer ability. Students with very weak skills experienced minimal change in classroom peer ability, and two-period coursework is likely to benefit these students.     

More on plurality and authorship in science: A reply to Tang

Understanding the “political economy” of the research environment is at the core of getting clear on the ethical aspects of authorship. Questions about who should be an author on a scientific paper are complicated by the fact that authorship is used to determine credit inside science and by outside institutions whose interests and standards often differ dramatically. Much of the research ethics community seeks to impose an elite ethical consensus on scientific fields. I argue that this approach undermines the scientific autonomy of research communities. In contrast, we should develop bottom-up strategies that empower local communities and associations.     

高等学校后勤管理与运行的科学模式

高校后勤全面推进社会化改革十年来,后勤管理在改革大潮中与时俱进、积极探索、拓展视野,依据各自具体实际,勇敢创新,逐步确立了适合各高校后勤发展特点的管理与运行机制,其中"小机关、多实体"的管理与运行模式更具体、更灵活、更能够体现中国高校后勤发展的具体实际,因此更具科学性。     

试析我国高等教育管理体制改革

随着我国市场经济的不断发展和深入,全球化进程的不断加快,我国高等教育的发展也在不断地变革着。在任何一个时代,变革的进行都是紧跟时代的发展,我国高等教育管理体制的建立是市场经济的产物,随着经济改革的不断开放、科学技术的不断创新、人民生活水平的不断提高,我国的高等教育管理体制的改革应跟上时代的脚步,加强素质教育的贯彻实施,以科学发展观为导向,实现人文教育的教育理念。在我国政府的宏观调控下,各级政府的统筹管理下进行全面、先进的改革,来促进我国高等教育的革新步伐,与世界高等教育接轨。     

充分发挥主体性：深入践行科学发展观的着力点

主体性是人的本质属性，其根本内涵表现为自主性、能动性和创造性。人的主体性是践行科学发展观的内源动力。主体性的充分发挥有助于把握和领会科学发展观的内涵，化解践行科学发展观过程中的矛盾、困境及掌控科学发展观赋予的科学发展方向。高扬人的主体精神，立足人的主体地位和充分发挥人的主体作用，是深入践行科学发展观人本核心、发展要务的关键所在，故此，充分发挥主体性理应成为践行科学发展观的着力点。     

阿拉伯翻译运动中的“科技翻译”

从某种意义上说,阿拉伯“百年翻译运动”应当是人类历史上第一次大规模的科技翻译活动。其证据之一是当时的阿拉伯翻译家对希腊科学的兴趣要远大于对希腊文学的兴趣;证据之二是现代科学术语直接源自于阿拉伯语的例证不在少数。因此,在这场科技翻译运动中所形成的“阿拉伯科学”就具有了明显的国际性特点。